Blazers hope Turkoglu brings a payoff

ESPN is reporting that the Blazers and Hedo Turkoglu have agreed on a deal that will bring the 30-year-old forward to Portland. Turkoglu was looking for a five year deal worth roughly $50 million, and all accounts are saying that the deal with the Blazers will probably be for that amount.

The Blazers had been looking for a veteran. They got one. They were looking for experience. They got it. They were looking for someone to take the scoring load off Brandon Roy and LaMarcus Aldridge. Check.

The Blazers got their big-name free agent. Now they need to hope for a payout.

Throughout the entire courtship process the Blazers have had with Turkoglu, I've been surprised at how polarizing of a figure he has been. Not necessarily because of his play on the court, but because of the proposed contract, and whether Turkoglu is worth it.

It's reportedly a five year deal. That's betting a lot on him staying effective for five years. Is a 32-34-year old Turkoglu worth more to the Blazers than developing players like Martell Webster, Travis Outlaw, or Nicolas Batum? If that's the case, the Blazers need to win soon, or else it will all be for nothing.

Patience had been thrown out the window. The Blazers no longer want to sit and wait for the team to get better on it's own anymore. This move was designed to help the Blazers now.

It's a gamble. The Blazers had grown accustomed to beating the odds in recent years with the continued progress of a young team. But this is the first time in recent memory that they're taking such a risk. Kevin Pritchard, Nate McMillan, and company have won with small wagers the past few years, now they're pushing their chips to the center of the table and betting big.

Some call it gutsy. Some gasp. Some call it stupid. And some are thinking "let it ride."

Like all good bets, it's being made after carefully considering the odds and the opponents. The West is still getting tougher, with the Spurs landing Richard Jefferson and the Lakers adding Ron Artest. The Blazers knew they needed to get better, and finally took at look at their roster and their needs in order to decide what necessary steps needed to be taken. Ultimately, Turkoglu was the pick.

General consensus among fans and media is that the Blazers are paying too much, and I happen to agree. Five years and $50 million seems too high for a 30-year-old player with career averages of 12 points, 3 assists, and 4 rebounds per game. It's a huge risk, but the Blazers knew they needed to do something to stay in the game, and weighed the pros and cons.

He averaged nearly 17 points per game, but what about that 41 percent shooting? At 6-10 and 220, he's hard to match up against, but can he tell the difference now between a good opportunity and a forced shot? Can Roy and Aldridge coexist with him?

In the end, Portland knew what they were getting: another piece to the championship puzzle. Let's look at Turkoglu for what he is: a shooter/scorer who can also post up and put the ball on the floor. His 6-10 frame means he can play 3 positions, and he just helped the Magic get to the NBA finals. He's not a superstar, or a dynamic point forward who will facilitate the offense (Point forward? He's not Scottie Pippen. Pip looked graceful and smooth when he handled the ball. Turkoglu's main strategy when handling the ball is to use his size and back it down the court before handing off to someone else in the halfcourt).

Yes they're overpaying for just a piece, but a team on the rise like the Blazers is only a piece away from serious contention. This isn't like the Blazers are going to the roulette table and betting it all on 15, instead, it's like a single hand of blackjack. The Lakers have been winning big all all night, and have a 7 showing. The Blazers have been slowly accumulating chips and now hold a 16. If the Blazers want to play it safe, they should stay, because the odds are against them that the card they'll get is a card they need. But there's a chance the Lakers could be holding a 17, and be in prime position to win. The Blazers need to hit, and take the big risk.

Turkoglu is the Blazers hitting on 16.

The bet may pay off, it may not. That's the chance you take on a gamble like this. The only thing left is to see how it all plays out.

And even if it doesn't work, the Blazers can always go back to the ATM with Paul Allen's PIN number.