Friday, June 19, 2009

Meet Your Longshot NBA Draft Prospect part 3: Micah Downs


Note- With the June 25 NBA draft poised to be the weakest in years, it seems like every player has a shot of being picked. With the help of some special guests, we're going to take an in-depth look at some players whose names NBA GM's might not have heard about.

Micah Downs is the kind of player that my Dad loves.

Back in March when Gonzaga was in town for the first round of the NCAA Tournament, I took my Dad down to the Rose Garden to watch the Zags' open scrimmage. My Dad had watched a few Gonzaga games here and there, but he had never seen them in person, so when we sat down in our seats, he immediately started assessing the players, based on his first impression.

Matt Bouldin was "goofy-looking." Austin Daye was "the skinny kid." Will Foster was "the big oaf."

And then he watched small forward Micah Downs as he drained 3-pointer after 3-pointer. As other players joked around and goofed off, Downs wore a look of steely determination as he hoisted up his shots.

"I like that guy. Who's he?" My Dad asked.

"That's Micah Downs. Transferred from Kansas," I said.

"Micah Downs..." he said. "Well they should have been getting the ball to him all season!"

I started to protest, saying that it was Heytvelt and Daye and Pargo who were our main options, but then I stopped. Why hasn't Micah Downs been getting the ball all season?

Downs is tall, at 6-foot-8, and he's got some muscle on him (a much better small forward frame than Daye). He could slash and jump out of the gym. But during his time at Gonzaga, Downs' role was to stand in the corner and shoot 3-pointers.

Except during flashes, the Gonzaga system didn't showcase what Downs had the potential to offer.

Downs is perhaps the most intriguing of all of the Zags in the 2009 NBA Draft. Daye will be drafed on potential alone. Pargo and Josh Heytvelt have been disected enough over four years. But Downs is different; his game says one thing, his stats say another, and at this point, the jury is still out.

His numbers aren't very exciting: 9.6 PPG, 1.1 Assists, 4.6 rebounds. But he was a decent enough 3-point shooter, hitting at a rate of .387%, and considering the fact that over half of his shots were 3-pointers, you have to like that number.

The thing that most intrigues me about Downs is that he seemingly has all the physical tools to be an effective small forward. He showed his athleticism by skying for dunks. He showed his ability to defend on the perimeter one-on-one. And of course, there was his 3-point shooting. The trend in the NBA is to have small forwards who can camp on the perimeter and knock down 3's, and be able to slash on occasion. Downs can give you some of that.

His size also translates well to the position. With the exception of someone like Ron Artest, many NBA small forwards are most like converted shooting guards. They're long, lanky and quick. Downs has the correct body type that the position is moving toward.

Of course, let's be honest, Downs doesn't have the skills to be a star in the NBA, but where I'm going with this is to show that Downs does have the physical tools necessary to be a serviceable small forward. But can he fully utilize those tools consistently and effectively? That still remains to be seen. But Downs has shown that he is willing to alter his game to fit the system.

One of the biggest problems I had with Downs when he first showed up at Gonzaga was his over-willingness to launch unnecessary 3-pointers. During his first year with the team, Downs had one move: Catch, jab-step, launch a contested 30-footer. When it went in, it was spectacular, but it still drove me crazy. I remember thinking that he can shoot his team out of a game like that, and every once in a while, he did.

But he seemed to understand his problems and tried to correct them. As his career went on, he started to move without the ball more, which provided more open looks for 3's. He also started to cut to the basket and take advantage of his height as he caught lobs from Jeremy Pargo.

If nothing else, he's willing to adapt.

One player I often compare him with is Adam Morrison. Both had similar frames (they both are 6-8, Morrison weighs 204, Downs is listed at 198), they both didn't rebound often, and had poor assist numbers. But they had different games. Morrison created his own shots and controlled the ball. whereas Downs was a role player with the same role every game. And yet, Downs could possibly end up more successful as an NBA small forward that Morrison, because Morrison's game didn't translate over to being an NBA small forward, where he had to be a spot-up shooter who didn't control the ball. Morrison wasn't built for that. At the very least, Downs has the advantage of already having been in the role of a spot-up, 3rd or 4th option.

But he still needs a lot. He needs to play better one-on-one D against faster swingmen, he needs to dare to venture inside the paint, and he needs to prove he can consistently put the ball on the floor. The good small forwards in the NBA make you respect their outside shooting, then burn you with the good extra pass or the good drive and kick. Downs hasn't shown that knack.

He may not get drafted, and based on his stats and the number of other talented swingmen in the Draft, he probably won't be. But he could end up being a summer-league or D-league surprise. He just seems like the kind of guy you bring off the bench to hit a couple 3's while the starters rest.

Best Case Scenario: He's a more athletic Sasha Pavlovic or Kyle Korver, possibly an 8th or 9th man off the bench.

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